Saturday, November 3, 2012

THE ELECTION

We are now a mere three days from this year's Presidential election.  I know one person who consistently says Mitt Romney is going to have a landslide victory.  This person spends an inordinate amount of time watching Fox News and listening to Rush Limbaugh.  I believe all three are wrong.

On the other hand, I put all of my faith in Nate Silver and his 538 blog.  I have mentioned him before but just to remind you . . Silver correctly predicted the winner of 49 out of 50 states and the winners of all 35 Senate elections in 2008.  So his record is pretty good, I'd say.

This year he has consistently said President Obama is the favorite, for which he has drawn the ire and criticism of a number of pundits, most notably Joe Scarborough, who say Silver just can't be right.

In his blog today, Silver said:

"There were 22 polls of swing states published Friday.  Of these, Mr. Obama led in 19 polls and two showed a tie.  Mitt Romney led in just one of the surveys, a Mason-Dixon poll of Florida."

Further on Silver concluded:

"If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can’t acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public."

And with that, I leave you with today's Gratuitous Critter photo.


5 comments:

  1. Don't know about the popular vote, but I'll agree....it seems like Obama has the electoral votes he needs to win.

    Interesting camo on that little tree frog, or whatever it is. ;)

    S

    ReplyDelete
  2. I'm not a political guy, but I'll live with what we get.

    ReplyDelete
  3. My boss is just like your friend - and he's otherwise a really smart guy. Go figure (although sometimes I think he spouts all this conservative stuff to get me wound up).

    Mike was reading Nate's blog to me this morning :)

    LOVE the frog! So cute!

    ReplyDelete
  4. The colors on that frog are amazing. I wonder what the benefit is to such colors since nature has decreed only the survival of the fittest.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I can imagine this frog keeping his fingers crossed! :-)

    ReplyDelete

Spammers are back so comment moderation is back on. Sorry.